Skillful sub-seasonal weather and climate forecasting has proven to be particularly difficult but is of great interest to water managers. Sub-seasonal forecasting, spanning approximately 15 to 45 days in the future, is difficult because it bridges short-term forecasting, where initial conditions primarily determine upcoming weather, and long-term forecasting in which slowly varying factors such as sea surface temperatures and soil moisture become more important.
This Challenge seeks to improve on existing sub-seasonal forecasts and asks Solvers to develop systems that perform demonstratively better than an existing baseline forecast for temperature and precipitation over a 15-42 day time frame. Solvers will have three months to develop their system, at which point they are asked to provide forecasts every two weeks over a 13 month period, with the first month being a “pre-season” to become familiar with the submission and evaluation processes.
Prizes may total up to $800,000. Four categories are defined by two forecast outlook periods and two forecast variables (temperature and precipitation). In each category, prizes for eligible solvers are as follows:
1st place - $100,000
2nd place - $50,000
3rd place - $25,000
In addition, one $25,000 prize per category may be awarded to an eligible solver based solely on hind- performance, submission of which is a requirement to be eligible for the above listed prizes.
PLEASE NOTE: This Challenge will remain open on InnoCentive.com for approximately 17 months, and while registration will be possible for the duration of posting the practical deadline for registering will be May 13, 2017. This is approximately two days prior to the deadline for the third forecast submission after which no new forecast submission accounts will be created and late-registering Solvers will be unable to upload the required forecasts. ADDITIONALLY: Solver InnoCentive usernames will be shared with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as part of the forecast evaluation process and leaderboard tracking, and will appear on a publically available leaderboard to track Solver performance.
This is a Reduction-to-Practice Challenge that requires written documentation, proof-of-concept data, source code, and delivery of an executable application.
This web site is hosted by a private entity and is not a service of the Bureau of Reclamation or the Department of the Interior (DOI). The solicitation and collection of your personal or individually identifiable information is subject to the host’s privacy and security policies and will not be shared with Reclamation or DOI unless you win the Challenge. Challenge winners’ personally identifiable information must be made available to Reclamation in order to collect an award. Please consult the Challenge Specific Agreement.
This Challenge is being conducted under the authority of the America COMPETES Reauthorization Act of 2010 (15 U.S.C. § 3719). The America COMPETES Reauthorization Act of 2010 states that awards for this Prize Competition may only be given to an individual that is a citizen or permanent resident of the United States, or an entity that is incorporated in and whose primary place of business is in the United States, subject to verification by the Seeker before Prizes are awarded. Further restrictions apply – see the Challenge Specific Agreement and the Federal Register Notice for full eligibility details.
Note: Submissions can be entertained from all Solvers regardless of whether they are U.S. citizens/entities. Meritorious submissions from non-U.S. citizens and entities as well as U.S. citizens that may not be prize eligible (see Challenge Specific Agreement and the Federal Register Notice) if any, will be recognized in publications issued by the Seeker announcing the results of the competition, such as press releases. Non-U.S citizens/permanent residents or non-U.S entities can also be included on U.S. teams. However, under the authority of the America COMPETES Reauthorization Act of 2010 (15 USC 3719), the Seeker cannot award prizes — whether monetary or otherwise — to individuals that are not U.S. citizens, not permanent residents of the U.S. or entities not incorporated in and maintaining a primary place of business in the U.S.
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