Quantifying the Public Returns to Postsecondary Education

OVERVIEW

Lumina Foundation, the Seeker for this Innocentive Challenge, is seeking innovative, data-driven methods to measure and communicate the public returns of postsecondary education.

As scepticism around the cost of college grows, it’s more crucial than ever to demonstrate the public value of higher education – for people’s health, communities, and safety – not only for the well-documented, personal economic returns.

Lumina is looking for solutions that create a 'Public Value Metric' that outlines the societal benefits of increased educational attainment across communities in the United States. Your submissions should combine a suite of collected metrics and data (using existing national datasets, disaggregated at the educational and regional levels), a narrative of how your indicators demonstrate the value of postsecondary education, and the methods by which you would develop and regularly communicate your findings.

Lumina is especially interested in solutions with a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 6-9, indicating the solution is proven and ready for annual deployment. Early-stage concepts (TRL 1-5) that clearly demonstrate promise, potential, and need for new tools may also be considered for partial awards.

Your IP Rights are protected in this Prize Challenge; Lumina Foundation must pay you an award to obtain them.

The best solution has the opportunity to win the award of $15,000 for meeting all must have solution requirements. The Challenge requires a written proposal to be submitted and Awards will be contingent upon the theoretical evaluation of the proposal by Lumina Foundation against the Solution Requirements. To receive an Award, Solvers are required to grant non-exclusive rights to the Intellectual Property (IP) in their proposed solution.

There is no assignment of IP Rights with this challenge. Solvers will retain all rights to any proposal not Awarded.

Submissions to this Challenge must be received by 11:59 PM (US Eastern Time) on July 07th, 2025.

Please review the later Participation Guidance section before submitting a proposal.

If you're interested in learning more about the Evaluators' requirements for this Challenge, we invite you to watch the recording of our evaluator webinar and Q&A session:

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ABOUT THE SEEKER & ELIGIBILITY

Lumina Foundation is an independent, private foundation in Indianapolis committed to making opportunities for learning beyond high school available to all. We envision higher learning that is easy to navigate, addresses racial injustice, and meets the nation’s talent needs through a broad range of credentials. We are working toward a system that prepares people for informed citizenship and success in a global economy. For more information on Lumina, visit: www.luminafoundation.org

Employees of Lumina Foundation, as well as members of Lumina’s board of directors and investees of Lumina Impact Ventures, are ineligible to receive an award for this Challenge.

THE CHALLENGE

Background

Despite its well-documented private return - often meaning US$1 million+ more in lifetime earnings compared to those with a high school diploma only (Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce) - college completion is increasingly being questioned by the public as ‘not worth it’, financially. This perception is partly driven by student loan burdens, but also by a widespread misunderstanding of the public benefits associated with higher education.

Postsecondary education’s societal returns are significant and multidimensional. For example, looking at three key lenses:

• Health: Individuals with college degrees are more likely to have employer-provided health insurance, higher life expectancy, and improved health outcomes.
• Communities: Higher educational attainment correlates with increased civic participation and community engagement.
• Crime: Regions with more college graduates see lower unemployment, higher earnings for all workers, and even reduced crime rates.

A Wall Street Journal analysis found that the presence of a major research university boosts regional productivity and is often a deciding factor in corporate site selection decisions. Despite this, public discourse and policymaking often lack a rigorous, data-driven articulation of how education benefits everyone, not just the degree-holder.

Example large-scale data collections for the kinds of metrics and questionnaires that could form part of your solution include:

1. The American Community Survey, operated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
2. Current Population Survey, operated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
3. NORC’s General Social Survey

While Lumina is prioritizing publicly-available data, Lumina encourages Solvers to look beyond academia and national census data for your solutions. What private studies or questionnaires might bring valuable insights? Where could public research be added to, or what is it currently missing?

Previous attempts to develop a comprehensive value metric, centered on the public (not the private, personal benefits to a postsecondary credential-holder) good, include: PostsecondaryValue.org, and Gallup + the Lumina Foundation’s own State of Higher Education report.
 

The Challenge

Lumina is aiming to bolster its programs that make learning beyond high school available to all, through the development of a Public Value Metric or Framework – that would help to showcase the public good of postsecondary education, alongside the private benefits to individuals.

We’re seeking practical, data-driven solutions that can quantify the public returns of postsecondary credential attainment. Specifically, we’re calling for a system or a set of measures that use reliable, nationally representative, disaggregated data to demonstrate how rising educational attainment levels (ideally broken down by certificate, Associate’s degree, Bachelor’s degree, Master’s degree, and Doctoral degree) are associated with improved health, civic engagement, economic resilience, and safety outcomes within communities.

Solvers are asked to:

• Detail reliable and regularly-collected data sources in health, communities, and crime. These data sources must be nationally-representative, and able to be disaggregated at the state level, within-state regions (towns, communities, and/or counties), and by education level.
  • An example would be: “Utilising the American Communities Survey (ACS)’s information and statistics on unemployment, it’s clear that those with postsecondary credentials in X state have Y levels of unemployment, compared to individuals with postsecondary credentials in Z state. The ACS is available every March, and here are the specific metrics, datasets, and questions to take into account.”
  • Your data source interrogation should utilize multiple value metrics and datasets, that incorporate both the economic and non-economic measures of public wellbeing.
  • Additional metrics beyond health, communities, and crime are welcome, subject to their applicability for Public Value regarding postsecondary credentials.
• Interrogate/analyze your findings. Solvers should demonstrate their understanding of their Public Value Metric findings, by detailing the implications of outlined public benefits, with the overall goal being to better communicate the benefits of education to both the general public and to policy makers.
  • At minimum, Solvers are expected to analyze their findings at a national level, with multiple specific examples at the state level and regional/local level in addition.
• Overall, your solution should contain a suite of specific, measurable indicators – linking educational attainment levels to public outcomes.

Lumina Foundation is interested in your ability to determine the relevant, quantitative statistics to build a Public Value Metric, as well your qualitative analysis and case-building for the benefits of a postsecondary education.

An ideal solution will deliver a working proof-of-concept document or market-ready approach (TRL6-9), that can be deployed and reported annually at the national and state levels, with clear documentation and usability. Early-stage tools and approaches (TRL1-5) that offer compelling arguments but lack the depth or actionable next steps for Lumina may be considered worthy of partial awards.

Please note: the specific geography of interest for this Challenge is the United States. Solvers from anywhere may participate, providing that their solutions address the U.S.-specific context, data sources, and solution requirements.
 

SOLUTION REQUIREMENTS

Lumina Foundation is primarily interested in solutions which meet the following requirements:

Must have:

1. Comprehensive set of sources, relevant metrics, and the associated questions and datasets that can indicate the public value of a postsecondary education. These large-scale sources should be nationally-representative, with available disaggregation by education level, geography, or tier (national/state/regional or local).
   For each source, Lumina Foundation requires:
   • When the source becomes available within the year (to build up to annual reporting of its Public Value Metric).
   • What are the specific datasets used, any specific questions.
   • Are there any data gaps? e.g. Is it nationally-representative, but without depth of data at regional/local levels? Does it lack comprehensive educational attainment data, that Lumina needs to build its Public Value for postsecondary credentials with?
2. Qualitative analysis of the Public Value of a postsecondary education, using your detailed sources and datasets.
   • Test your solution. What do the sources you’ve gathered, the datasets you’ve based on, and the education-focused data on the lenses of health, community, and crime tell you in terms of the Public Value of postsecondary credentials?
   • Provide a report on your findings, including information about the levels of postsecondary attainment and how that impacts the data.
   • If you found the publicly-available data lacking, please clearly argue why new data collection is required, what your questionnaires would look like, etc.
3. Self-assessment of Technological Readiness, per the Innocentive TRL scale below. Indicate where you believe your submission or solution fits:
   • Is it an early-stage idea of how these datasets stack up (TRL1-3)?
   • Does it show proof of concept for a potential Public Value Metric, on an annual reporting cadence (TRL4-6)?
   • Or is it ‘production ready’, and able to be used by Lumina Foundation to showcase the benefits of postsecondary education (TRL7-9)?

Nice to have:

1. Output of your Public Value Metric proof of concept: e.g. reports based on a specific year, a dashboard with national/regional/local statistics on the key domain areas (health, communities, crime/safety), or analytical findings and data.
2. Additional outcomes/domains beyond health, communities, and crime/safety: e.g. environmental, innovation, or other relevant domains you believe should be seen and measured.
3. Strong narrative, scientific rigor, and clarity in communication – your results will also be evaluated on their scientific basis and analysis, as well as their ability to clearly articulate the findings. Solver solutions should be understandable to others – not just education experts! How will your report and findings resonate with policy makers, educators, and the public?

Things to Avoid:

Submissions that rely solely on proprietary tools should be transparent about limitations on access. Open-source or publicly accessible tools are strongly preferred to ensure transparency, reproducibility, and uptake by state and local stakeholders.

Lumina encourages Solvers to be conscientious and communicative about the type of data used in any solution.

Solutions with Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) 6-9 are invited.

This Prize Challenge has the following features:

1. Your IP Rights are protected; Lumina Foundation must pay you an award to obtain them.
2. The best solution has the opportunity to win the award of $15,000 USD for meeting all must have solution requirements, as solely determined by Lumina Foundation.
3. Awards will be contingent upon the theoretical evaluation of the proposal by Lumina Foundation against the Solution Requirements.
4. To receive an Award, Solvers are required to grant non-exclusive rights to the Intellectual Property (IP) in their proposed solution.
5. Lumina Foundation may also issue “Honorable Mention” recognitions for notable submissions that are not selected for monetary awards.
6. Lumina Foundation may wish to partner with the Solver at the conclusion of the Challenge. Please indicate your interest in partnering.

YOUR SUBMISSION

Solvers should provide answers to the submission form, and a narrative (not to exceed 15 pages) in the attachments field. Solvers should include:

• Solution overview,
• the data sources used,
• the specific measures of public benefits to postsecondary education that they would prioritize (including variables from each dataset and question),
• the timing for the release of data,
• and a process for annual reporting.

The strongest solutions will provide quantitative summaries of your measures at a national, state, and sub-state level, and the qualitative analysis underpinning your findings.

Please login and register your interest, to complete the submission form.

The submitted proposals must be written in English and can include:

1. Participation type – you will first be asked to inform us how you are participating in this challenge, as a Solver (Individual) or Solver (Organization).
2. Solution Level - the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of your solution.
3. Partnering - there may be an opportunity to partner at the conclusion of this Challenge. Please indicate if partnering is of interest to you.
4. Problem & Opportunity - highlight the innovation in your approach to the Problem, its point of difference, and the specific advantages/benefits this brings (up to 500 words).
5. Solution Overview - detail the features of your solution and how they address the SOLUTION REQUIREMENTS (500 words, there is space to add more in the summary field, and attach supporting data, diagrams, etc).
   1. Data sources used
   2. Specific measures of public benefits to postsecondary education that you would prioritise. Include variables from each dataset and specific question.
   3. Timing for the release of data
   4. Process for annual reporting
6. Solution Feasibility – Supporting Information and Rationale, such as references and precedents, that will help Lumina Foundation evaluate and validate the feasibility of the solution (up to 500 words).
7. Experience - Expertise, use cases and skills you or your organization have in relation to your proposed solution (up to 500 words).
8. Solution Risks - any risks you see with your solution and how you would plan for this (up to 500 words).
9. Timeline, capability and costs - describe what you think is required to deliver the solution, estimated time and cost (up to 500 words).
10. Online References - provide links to any publications, articles or press releases of relevance (up to 500 words).
11. Attachments – provide additional information.

PARTICIPATION GUIDANCE

1. Submission Close Date: Submissions to this Challenge must be received by 11:59 PM (US Eastern Time) on July 07th, 2025.
2. Late submissions: Late submissions will not be considered.
3. Multiple submissions, 3 Maximum: In case of multiple submissions by the same Solver, only 3 submissions – the final 3 submitted – will be considered. Any other submissions will be deleted prior to evaluation.
4. U.S.-specific context: Solvers from anywhere may participate and win this Challenge, however you must focus your submission or solution on the specific context of the United States.
5. Submission form and attachments: Your submission will be evaluated by the evaluation team first reviewing the information and content you have submitted at the submission form, with attachments used as additional context to your form submission. Submissions relying solely on attachments will receive less attention from the evaluation team.
6. Evaluation notification steps: After the Challenge submission close date, Lumina Foundation will review and select the winning solutions according to the timeline in the Challenge header. Everyone who submits a proposal will be notified about the status of their submissions.
7. Use of AI: Please note that any submissions produced solely with generative AI are not of interest.
8. Learn more: Find out more about participation in Innocentive Challenges.